MARKET OVERVIEW Throughout June, global markets were shaped by major corporate transactions, evolving artificial intelligence (AI) policy, persistent inflation concerns, and central bank decisions. Manufacturing activity remained resilient across the U.S. and China, supported by expanding factory output, stronger construction spending, and stable purchasing managers' indexes despite rising input costs. Artificial intelligence remained a dominant theme. President Trump signe

In this brief update, we share our latest estimate of market valuation, guided by our internal models, along with an update on the equity risk premium, using the implied premium derived from the S&P 500. We begin with a model-based view, explaining how the key inputs have changed and what those changes mean for our valuation outlook. We then turn to developments in the implied equity risk premium and consider what recent movements may suggest. We also provide our estimate of